Mental models can be predictors

A chance conversation produced this thought recently: in addition to helping us frame our thoughts, add structure to the same…they can also be predictors. That is, a framework that takes a person through an action can also speak to the likely outcome of that action.

Let’s take a look at a ‘simple’ mental model of studying for a test. Here are the possible steps:

  1. Identify the Goal: The goal is to achieve a high grade on an upcoming test.
  2. Gather Resources and Information: Collect all necessary study materials like textbooks, notes, and online resources.
  3. Create a Study Schedule: Allocate time each day to study different topics covered in the test.
  4. Study and Practice: Follow the schedule, study the materials, and practice with past papers or quizzes.
  5. Seek Feedback: Ask the teacher or peers for clarification on difficult topics, or discuss and review the material together.
  6. Adjust: Based on feedback and self-assessment, adjust the study schedule or methods if necessary.

In this model, the actions are the steps taken to prepare for the test, and the likely outcome is achieving a high grade on the test. If the steps are followed diligently and effectively, the model predicts a positive outcome – a high grade. Conversely, if steps are skipped or not executed well (e.g., not studying enough, not seeking help on difficult topics), the model predicts a less favorable outcome – a lower grade.